Covid evenly spread out across Uttar Pradesh but testing shows wide variations

NEW DELHI: It has been six months since Uttar Pradesh performed its first Covid-19 test and recorded its first infection, in a man in Ghaziabad. Starting from this westernmost part of the state, the pandemic has evenly spread across all its regions, now blazing towards the 3-lakh mark. But the same can’t be said for testing, though at 60.5 lakh tests till September 3, UP leads the country in absolute numbers.

Its estimated population of 22.4 crore means UP ranks among the lowest in the key testing parameter — people tested per lakh population (testing rate, from here on). At 2,698, UP’s testing rate is higher only than those of Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The three large states ahead of UP in total caseload all have higher testing rates — Maharashtra (3,588), Tamil Nadu (6,667) and Karnataka (4,747).
In the last 30 days, more people were tested (34 lakh) in the state than the previous months combined. As the number of tests increase, the macro testing rate, too, is expected to rise over the next few weeks. But what will need a closer look is the wide variations in the micro testing rates of districts across the vast geographical sweep of the state, even though the pandemic’s reach is now almost uniform — only 11 of the state’s 75 districts have recorded less than 1,000 cases.
Districts in the west and central regions that comprise NCR and most of the state’s main urban centres account for almost half (47%) of all the tests done in the state. Purvanchal, where two of the top six hotspots now in terms of active cases — Gorakhpur and Varanasi — are located, has a testing share of 23%.
The disparity becomes more conspicuous when parsed district-wise — only a third of the districts are testing more than the state average of 2,698. And those with the highest testing rates are not necessarily the biggest hotspots at present.
Take Gautam Budh Nagar (Noida), for instance. The NCR district, UP’s industrial capital for all practical purposes, leads in testing rate (9,161). GB Nagar was UP’s main Covid hotpsot for months as cases rose in tandem with Delhi. Consequently, it started testing more aggressively.
On the active cases dashboard at present, GB Nagar ranks 12th. But the five districts currently with most active cases have significantly lower testing rates — Lucknow (6,433), Kanpur Urban (3,536), Parayagraj (1,758), Gorakhpur (1,485) and Varanasi (2,740). Meanwhile, Baghpat has the third-best testing rate in UP (6,241), though the second-fewest active cases.
The least testing district is Fatehpur (667), though it has more active cases than 25 UP districts. Fatehpur is testing 14 times fewer people per lakh population than Noida. Agra, which has the highest case fatality rate (3.5%) in the state, has a testing rate of 2,450 — less than a third of Noida.
Other than Fatehpur, the four other districts at the bottom of the testing pack are Lakhimpur Kheri, Pratapgarh, Muzaffarnagar and Sitapur — all testing less than 1,000 people per lakh population. The testing rate in these five districts remained low despite the infection spreading faster in three of these places — Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur and Pratpgarh — faster than in most other districts in August. Lakhimpur Kheri, in fact, had the highest daily growth rate (5.49%) last month.
While growth in overall tests conducted was over 100% in August, this addition, too, was distributed unevenly. Testing in Pratapgarh grew the least (35%) over a one-month period (Aug 3-Sept 3) compared to all other UP district, while that in around 50 districts doubled or quadrupled.